Determinants of Non-Oil Export Competitiveness in Egypt: Evidence from a VECM Analysis
Abstract
This study investigates the determinants of Egypt’s non-oil export competitiveness during 2000–2023, a period marked by major economic reforms and global shocks. Using annual data from the World Bank’s WDI and WGI, the analysis applies Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and a Vector Error Correction Model to examine long- and short-run relationships between non-oil exports and key structural and macroeconomic factors. The results indicate a stable long-run equilibrium, with gross fixed capital formation, institutional quality, exchange-rate depreciation, trade openness, and logistics performance exerting significant positive effects on export competitiveness. Short-run dynamics are weaker, reflecting structural rigidities and adjustment lags. The findings highlight the centrality of investment, governance reforms, and trade facilitation in enhancing Egypt’s export performance. Policy implications emphasize strengthening productive capacity, improving institutional efficiency, and upgrading logistics. Future research should incorporate firm-level data and explore sectoral heterogeneity in export responses.
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